Good News for Chinese Assets!

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In the ever-evolving landscape of global finance, recent trends have drawn notable attention to the burgeoning interest in Chinese equities from foreign investorsVarious reports suggest that global funds have significantly ramped up their purchases of Chinese stocks, marking the second consecutive month of net buyingNoteworthy contributions to this surge are attributed to foreign investment firms like Norway’s Skagen AS and the American Boston Partners, both of which have considerably increased their stakes in A-shares and Hong Kong-listed stocksThe underlying rationale behind these investments can be traced to the low valuations of these equities, alongside a marked reduction in financial and regulatory risks, as well as improvements in corporate profitability.

The enthusiasm from overseas investors is palpable, with indicators suggesting a strong influx of foreign capital entering the Chinese market

As of March 19, net inflows from Northern-bound funds exceeded 66.43 billion yuan (approximately $9.5 billion) for the current year alone, surpassing the total net purchase amount of 43.7 billion yuan recorded for the entire year of 2023. Institutions across the board are expressing optimism about the evolving landscape of the A-share market, particularly as valuations hover at historical lows, which amplifies the attractiveness of Chinese assets for investment opportunities.

Moreover, a recent report from Bank of America unveils the remarkably optimistic sentiment prevailing among investorsThey are aggressively purchasing stocks not only in Europe but also in emerging marketsBank of America strategist Michael Hartnett highlighted that the allocation to European stocks has seen the largest increase since June 2020, while allocations to emerging market equities have surged to their highest since April 2017.

Adding to the positive outlook, Bloomberg reported on March 19 that global funds are embracing Chinese stocks, with fresh data indicating a persistent trend of net buying

Investment firms appear increasingly confident that Chinese assets are poised for an optimistic trajectorySkagen AS and Boston Partners are often cited as quintessential examples of this dynamicBoth firms have been buying up shares in the A-shares and Hong Kong markets, primarily driven by their attractive valuations, diminished financial risks, and evident improvements in corporate earnings.

The investment manager Fredrik Bjelland, overseeing Skagen AS’s emerging markets fund, shared insights into the cautious stance previously adopted by investorsConcerns regarding structural challenges faced by the Chinese economy have led to a more selective approach towards Chinese equities, compounded by fears and misunderstandings, along with significant capital flows which have exacerbated uncertaintiesHowever, he pointed out that when such sentiments reach extreme levels, it often signals a strategic moment to invest.

Bjelland further noted that the most pressing fears among investors have largely subsided and that the low valuations present in the market, combined with reduced risks, make a compelling case for increased investment in Chinese stocks

Currently, Chinese shares represent 32% of Skagen AS's emerging markets fund, a significant jump from 28% last September and exceeding the 26% weight of Chinese equities in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

Performance-wise, the emerging markets fund from Skagen AS has outperformed its peers by impressive margins, achieving 87% and 91% in respective yearsA highlight of their investment portfolio is the major stake in China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), which saw its share price reaching a historical high earlier this month.

Meanwhile, David Kim, a fund manager at Boston Partners, has also noted robust signals reflected in quarterly reportsThe decline in valuations across the Chinese stock market has rendered fundamentally strong businesses increasingly attractive for investmentKim’s fund maintains a growing stake in JD.com, citing its solid earnings trajectory

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Additionally, his interest in Longfor Group stems from the belief that the developer’s non-residential properties are significantly undervalued.

As of February, Boston Partners’ holdings in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stocks accounted for 47.5% of its emerging markets portfolio, reflecting a doubling in share over the past six monthsOther notable international institutions, such as Vanguard and M&G, have also been increasing their investments in the Chinese stock market, echoing the sentiment of broader attraction to the nascent opportunities within this pivotal market.

Charles Gave, co-founder of Gavekal Group, recently underscored the prevailing view that today’s Chinese stock market is presenting some of the most valuable investment opportunities globallyThis sentiment has sparked discussions around the resurgence of foreign capital back into China’s financial avenues.

From various indicators, it is palpable that foreign capital is embracing a fresh wave of net purchases in Chinese equities

Data from Wind up to March 19 highlights that there were net purchases of 66.43 billion yuan—a figure that greatly eclipses the previous total for an entire yearParticularly noteworthy was February, which recorded a staggering net inflow of 60.744 billion yuan, setting a record for monthly net buying within a year.

Research from Industrial Securities recently pointed out that February marked the first monthly net inflow of foreign capital in seven months, crucially positioning itself as a primary catalyst for recent market momentumAnalyzing the foreign capital structure reveals a cumulative increase in allocations near 26 billion yuan, indicating a proactive response to market opportunities.

Notably, foreign investors have also shown a growing affinity towards renminbi-denominated bonds, with substantial accumulation taking placeOn March 15, Wang Chunying, the deputy director and spokesperson for the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, confirmed that in February, foreign capital purchased an impressive sum of $11.1 billion (about 800 billion yuan) worth of domestic bonds

This marks the sixth consecutive month whereby foreign entities have increased their stakes in renminbi bonds, further testifying to the re-evaluated perspectives on Chinese assets.

In conclusion, the current trajectory indicates that foreign capital is actively re-pricing Chinese assets, fostering a fresh environment of optimism and strategic sentiment towards investment in the regionMany foreign institutions remark on the dynamic shifts occurring within the A-share market, accentuated by historical low valuations that indeed reveal lucrative investment prospects.

Morgan Stanley noted that the A-share market has undergone a critical transformation, suggesting that the Chinese economy is anticipated to stabilize in the first half of the year, leading to enhanced market responsiveness to marginal improvements and an augmented potential for profit generationSimilarly, Goldman Sachs has emphasized the importance of shareholder dividends and share repurchases among Chinese listed companies, coupled with improvements in investor protections and enhanced communication with market participants, prompting elevated ratings for A-shares.

The collective assessments from leading financial institutions underscore a burgeoning paradigm shift as promises of enhanced earnings growth of 8% to 10% loom large for indices like the MSCI China index and the CSI 300 in 2024, unlocking vast treasures of opportunity within one of the world’s principal economies.

In the current context, the seemingly insatiable appetite for investment amidst promising economic signals amidst global fluctuations brings forth renewed excitement not just for investors but for the whole financial community at large.

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